The Potential Impact of Treatment on HIV Incidence
Mathematical modellers have considered the potential impact of ART on HIV incidence and prevalence in a variety of scenarios and settings over the past 15 years, with model estimates becoming more refined as improved data have become available. A future meeting of the HIV Modelling Consortium on the projected prevention effectiveness of ARV-based technologies will provide a venue for systematic comparison of existing mathematical models and their predictions, and commissioning and discussing work on advanced topics of specific interest to designers of new prevention strategies.
- Systematically compare existing mathematical models of expanded HIV treatment for prevention and identify the extent to which they agree and understand the reasons for any discrepancies in model predictions.
- Identify aspects of treatment intervention programmes that may not be adequately addressed in existing modelling, and create a research agenda for incorporating these.
- Create a joint statement identifying key data needs for improving the specificity of mathematical models.
- Identify and prioritise research of most urgent programmatic importance.
MC 3.1: PI Wim Delva - SACEMA
MC 3.2 (commissioned) PI Gesine Meyer-Rath - Boston University
MC 3.2: PI Sake J De Vlas - Erasmus Medical Centre
MC 3.3: PI Till Bärnighausen - Africa Centre