The Potential Impact of Treatment on HIV Incidence

Background

Mathematical modellers have considered the potential impact of ART on HIV incidence and prevalence in a variety of scenarios and settings over the past 15 years, with model estimates becoming more refined as improved data have become available.  A future meeting of the HIV Modelling Consortium on the projected prevention effectiveness of ARV-based technologies will provide a venue for systematic comparison of existing mathematical models and their predictions, and commissioning and discussing work on advanced topics of specific interest to designers of new prevention strategies.

Aims

1. Systematically compare existing mathematical models of expanded HIV treatment for prevention and identify the extent to which they agree and understand the reasons for any discrepancies in model predictions.
2. Identify aspects of treatment intervention programmes that may not be adequately addressed in existing modelling, and create a research agenda for incorporating these.
3. Create a joint statement identifying key data needs for improving the specificity of mathematical models.
4. Identify and prioritise research of most urgent programmatic importance.

Resources

PLoS Medicine Special Collection with the HIV Modelling Consortium