Modelling to support the WHO’s Consolidated Strategic Information Indicator Guidelines

In order to develop an effective response strategy to the HIV epidemic, a country requires information on strategic indicators to guide the decision-making process. In May 2015, the WHO released Consolidated Strategic Information Guidelines for HIV. This document details a set of indicators, based on the cascade of HIV services, and related to impact in terms of incidence and mortality that countries should aim to collect data on in order to best evaluate delivery of care for people living with HIV. The WHO are supporting countries in responding to these guidelines by convening a meeting whereby currently available data will be reviewed and gaps in indicators are identified. The WHO asked the HIV Modelling Consortium to support these efforts be developing a simple model of the HIV cascade indicators.


The HIV MC will contribute to these efforts by developing a simple framework for documenting and analysing cascade data in a consistent manner, which defines data inputs, includes key assumptions, uncertainties, and the links in the cascade (i.e. how assumptions in one area affects others).  It is hoped that through this framework countries will also be able to identify gaps in the linked cascade for scaling up to 90-90-90 targets, to support countries to identify and cost scale up.  

Two workshops are being convened by the WHO, the first will be held in late 2015. Here, countries will bring the current data that they have and review how strategic information needs to be improved in their country. A second meeting will be held in late 2016 to review data collated. In the period between the HIV MC will refine the model developed and test this with a number of countries.


A simple mathematical model tool that can be used by countries to aid assessment of the current state of care in their setting at the country level, and identify  any gaps that may require strengthening A manuscript that reviews the cascades of all participating countries, as will be possible, given that they will then have been ensured they are consistent.