Improved Methods for Estimating HIV Prevalence and Incidence
Urban Uganda using the UNAIDS Spectrum/EPP 2014 software to estimate epidemic trends.
The methods used to derive these estimates are continually being improved as new data become available. Many countries in in sub-Saharan Africa now have two or more nationally representative household surveys. Incorporating age-specific HIV prevalence data from successive surveys offer the potential to improve estimates of age-specific HIV incidence patterns. In South Africa, modelling has illustrated that incorporating age-specific HIV prevalence and all-cause mortality information into model estimates generated different historical HIV incidence trends, and may lead to better projections of future epidemic trends. Moreover, assuming that HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of all adults may result in biased estimates as the age-distribution of HIV shifts to older ages in the ART era.
This HIV Modelling Consortium work package focuses on improving the accuracy, precision, and quantification of uncertainty for national HIV epidemic estimates in sub-Saharan Africa.