Validation Exercise submission deadline extended

Validation Exercise for Models Assessing Community Trials: Submission deadline extended

As part of the Work Package on Mathematical Models in Community Trials, the HIV Modelling Consortium have developed a protocol to assess how useful mathematical models are at anticipating the short-term impact of interventions, and generate a methodology that rigorously reviews initial model assumptions to improve validation in this field.

The primary objective of this exercise is to begin to understand how model projections can succeed or fail in projecting the impact of interventions in CRCTs rather than to identify a ‘winning’ model.

The HIV Modelling Consortium is now open to submissions from individuals who are modelling interventions in community trials due to start in 2013.

Protocol submission details:

In order to be eligible to participate in the Model Validation Exercise, modellers must submit a document, which details the model protocol developed at the beginning of the trial.

• The model protocol must include all aspects of the model such as the model structure, parameters and chosen analyses
• It is the responsibility of the modeller submitting the protocol to clearly structure their protocol submission to identify the boundaries between the model “structure”, the “parameters (epidemiological and biological assumptions) and the “intervention assumptions”. For guidance on how to distinguish between these boundaries please review table 1 in the Model Validation Exercise guidance document.

Submission deadline:

• The deadline for protocol submission is Friday 1^st March 2013. Protocols should be sent to Ms Ellen McRobie: e.mcrobie@imperial.ac.uk
• In late May a working group will convene to review the submitted protocols. Following this meeting modellers will be notified if they are suitable for the exercise and if there are any amendments to be made to their protocols
• In June revised protocols will be submitted for a final review prior to a formal-lock down of the model protocols

Please contact Ellen McRobie if you have any queries: e.mcrobie@imperial.ac.uk