Technical Meeting on Methods for Estimating Subnational HIV Prevalence

The Secretariat convened a meeting in Nairobi, 24 – 25 March 2014 in which modelling groups, representatives from UNAIDS, the Health Policy Project, and representatives from country program teams to discuss the utility of sub-national estimates of HIV epidemiology and review the proposed methods.
24 – 25 March 2014 | Nairobi, Kenya

Major decisions in HIV programming planning and the impact evaluation of programs rely on understanding the epidemiology of HIV in a country. Existing surveillance, estimation and modelling is overwhelming focussed at the national level, but it is increasingly apparent that substantial heterogeneity exists within a country in the extent of the HIV epidemic, its dominant modes of transmission and the implementation of programs. Consequently, country programmers and epidemiologists, as well as international funders, increasingly want to routinely use tools to measure, visual and analyse these within-country epidemiological patterns.

More background information can be found on the project page.

Seven modelling groups developed methods for generating sub-national estimates of HIV prevalence using data from a number of sources (GPS and HIV data from DHS, ANC, land cover, population density etc.), for the following countries:

  • Malawi
  • Tanzania
  • Ghana
  • Uganda
  • Cote d’Ivoire
  • Kenya

Internal and external validation exercises were performed by modelling groups in order to assess the performance of the methods in predicting the pattern of prevalence.

Following the meeting UNAIDS and the HIV Modelling Consortium developed a set of recommendations for next steps.