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Name of Model Research group Area of research Population Type of model Reference Contact
Goals Model

John Stover, Carel Pretorius, Chaitra Gopalappa, Kyeen Anderson and Lori Bollinger (Futures Institute)

HIV epidemic dynamics, impacts of prevention interventions (both biomedical and behavior change, adults and children), impacts of new prevention technologies, resource allocation General population Deterministic, population-based
  • Schwartlander B, Stover J, Hallett T, Atun R, Avila C, Gouws E, et al. Towards and improved investment approach for an effective response to HV/AIDS. Lancet. 2011;377(9782): 2031-2041.
Goodreau et al.

Steven Goodreau et al. (University of Washington)

Impact of biomedical prevention interventions, Drivers of epidemics (any region), Impact of combination prevention approaches, Impact evaluation, Impact of behaviour-based prevention interventions in sub-Saharan Africa, Modelling methodology, Epidemic Surveillance / Projections / Estimates, Demographic impact of epidemic MSM Stochastic network-based model
  • Goodreau SM, Carnegie NB, Vittinghoff E, Lama JR, Sanchez J, Grinsztejn B, Koblin BA, Mayer KH, Buchbinder SP. What drives the US and Peruvian HIV epidemics in men who have sex with men (MSM)? PLoS One. 2012;7(11): e50522.
  • Sullivan PS, Carballo-Dieguez A, Coates T, Goodreau SM, McGowan I, Sanders E, Smith A, Goswami P, Sanchez J. HIV Prevention Successes and Challenges for MSM. The Lancet. 2012;380(9839): 388-399.
HIV Care Cascade

Timothy Hallett, Jeffrey Eaton and Jack Olney (Imperial College London)

Impact of interventions directed at strengthening ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa General population Individual-based stochastic model
  • Hallett T and Eaton JW. A Side Door Into Care Cascade for HIV-Infected Patients? J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2013;63:S228–S232.
HIV Synthesis Transmission Model for Sub-Saharan Africa

Andrew Phillips, Valentina Cambiano, Debbie Ford, Fumiyo Nakagawa, Loveleen Bansi (University College London), Alec Miners (LSHTM) and Paul Revill (University of York)

Impact of biomedical prevention interventions, impact of behavioural intervention approaches, impact of combination prevention approaches, Optimization of treatment and patient management (monitoring),Impact of introduction of new diagnostic technologies (e.g. new testing devices, resistance test, POC CD4 and VL), Resistance development and transmission South Africa - General population: aged 15 to 65 years old. Sub Saharan Africa - General population: aged 15 to 65 years old. Zimbabwe - General population: aged 15 to 65 years old. Lesotho - General population: aged 15 to 65 years old. Individual-based dynamic stochastic simulation model including transmission. Model of progression is similar to the other Synthesis models, except features such as drug availability and diagnostic testing.
  • Phillips AN, Pillay D, Garnett G, Bennett D, Vitoria M, Cambiano V, et al. Effect on transmission of HIV-1 resistance of timing of implementation of viral load monitoring to determine switches from first to second-line antiretroviral regimens in resource-limited settings. AIDS. 2011; 25(6):843-850. 
  • Cambiano V, Bertagnolio S, Jordan M, Pillay D, Perriens J, Venter F, et al. Predicted levels of HIV drug resistance: potential impact of expanding diagnosis, retention, and eligibility criteria for antiretroviral therapy initiation. AIDS. 2014, 28 (Suppl 1):S15–S23 
  • Cambiano V, Bertagnolio , Jordan M, et al. Transmission of Drug Resistant HIV and Its Potential Impact on Mortality and Treatment Outcomes in Resource-Limited Settings. J Infect Dis. 2013; 207: S57-62
Andrew Phillips ( Valentina Cambiano (
Menzies TB-HIV

Ted Cohen, Megan Murray, Joshua Salomon, Hsein-ho Lin, Leonid Chindelevitch, and Nick menzies (Harvard School of Public Health)

TB and HIV, and effects (epidemiology, disease burden, resource utilization) of control interventions directed at these diseases General population Deterministic state-transition model
  • Menzies NA, Cohen T, Lin H-H, Murray M, Salomon JA. Population Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Diagnosis with Xpert MTB/RIF: A Dynamic Simulation and Economic Evaluation. PLoS Med. 2012; 9(11): e1001347.
Nick Menzies - nickmenzies(at)
Nairobi Model

Íde Cremin, Timothy Hallett (Imperial College London)

Impact of combination HIV prevention Includes male-male transmission as well as male-female transmission. It distinguishes the general population (by sex: male/female) and key populations (FSW, MSM, MSW) Deterministic, compartmental, general population and FSW, MSM, MSW
Nyanza Model

Íde Cremin, Timothy Hallett (Imperial College London)

Impact of combination HIV prevention Heterosexual transmission, sex and risk structured Deterministic, compartmental, sex and risk group structured

Wilson group, Kirby Institute, UNSW Australia

Allocative efficiency, impact evaluation, cost-effectiveness, epidemic and financial commitment projections, incidence estimation, cascade evaluation Any risk-based and demographic-based stratifications of populations are included Compartmental population-based model with optimization routines
  • Kerr et al. Optima: a model for HIV epidemic analysis, program prioritization, and resource optimization. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2015;69(3):365-76
  • Wilson et al. Allocating resources efficiently to address strategic objectives: optimisation of HIV responses. Under review.
  • Fraser et al. Sudan’s HIV response: Value for money in a low-level HIV epidemic; Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency study. Report published by the World Bank and UNSW Australia. 2014
  • Fraser et al. Niger’s HIV response: Targeted investments for a health future. Findings from the HIV allocative efficiency and financial sustainability study. Report published by the World Bank. 2014

Jan Hontelez (Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; and Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa)

HIV elimination, epidemiological impact of antiretroviral therapy, population level impact of health systems and cascade of care, cost-effectiveness of different modes of treatment delivery General population; female sex workers and male clients Stochastic microsimulation model
  • Steen R, Hontelez JA, Veraart A, White RG, de Vlas SJ. Looking upstream to prevent HIV transmission: can interventions with sex workers alter the course of HIV epidemics in Africa as they did in Asia? AIDS. 2014; 28: 891-9.
  • Eaton JW, Menzies NA, Stover J, Cambiano V, Chindelevitch L, Cori A, Hontelez JA, (...) Hallett TB. Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models. Lancet glob health. 2014;2(1) e23-e24