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Name of Model Research group Area of research Population Type of model Reference Contact
Goals Model

John Stover, Carel Pretorius, Chaitra Gopalappa, Kyeen Anderson and Lori Bollinger (Futures Institute)

HIV epidemic dynamics, impacts of prevention interventions (both biomedical and behavior change, adults and children), impacts of new prevention technologies, resource allocation General population Deterministic, population-based
  • Schwartlander B, Stover J, Hallett T, Atun R, Avila C, Gouws E, et al. Towards and improved investment approach for an effective response to HV/AIDS. Lancet. 2011;377(9782): 2031-2041.
Goodreau et al.

Steven Goodreau et al. (University of Washington)

Impact of biomedical prevention interventions, Drivers of epidemics (any region), Impact of combination prevention approaches, Impact evaluation, Impact of behaviour-based prevention interventions in sub-Saharan Africa, Modelling methodology, Epidemic Surveillance / Projections / Estimates, Demographic impact of epidemic MSM Stochastic network-based model
  • Goodreau SM, Carnegie NB, Vittinghoff E, Lama JR, Sanchez J, Grinsztejn B, Koblin BA, Mayer KH, Buchbinder SP. What drives the US and Peruvian HIV epidemics in men who have sex with men (MSM)? PLoS One. 2012;7(11): e50522.
  • Sullivan PS, Carballo-Dieguez A, Coates T, Goodreau SM, McGowan I, Sanders E, Smith A, Goswami P, Sanchez J. HIV Prevention Successes and Challenges for MSM. The Lancet. 2012;380(9839): 388-399.

Natasha Martin (University of Bristol), Peter Vickerman (LSHTM) and the Social and Mathematical Epidemiology Group.

Impact of ART on HIV/HCV or HIV/HBV progression and vertical or sexual transmission Individuals coinfected with HIV and hepatitis C virus, individuals coinfected with HIV and hepatitis B virus Coinfection disease progression cohort model with sexual and vertical transmission
MOT-Dynamical Model

Marie-Claude Boily, Sharmistha Mishra, Elisa Mountain and Michael Pickles (Imperial College London)

Validation of the "Modes of Transmission model" using simulation (with dynamical models) Various districts of Karnataka in South-India; Kisumu, Kenya; Lesotho (county-level) Dynamical deterministic; Modes of Transmission Model (generic and tailored)
  • Mishra S, Pickles M, Blanchard JF, Moses S, Boily MC. Distinguishing sources of HIV transmission from the distribution of newly acquired HIV infections: why is it important for HIV prevention planning? Sex Transm Infect. 2014;90(1):19-25.
  • Mishra S, Pickles M, Blanchard JF, Moses S, Shubber Z, Boily MC. Validation of the Modes of Transmission Model as a Tool to Prioritize HIV Prevention Targets: A Comparative Modelling Analysis. PLoS One. 2014;9(7):e101690.
Marie-Claude Boily - mc.boily(at) Sharmistha Mishra - sharmistha.mishra08(at)
Strategic Epi-ART in India Model 

Marie-Claude Boily, Sharmistha Mishra, Elisa Mountain, Michael Pickles (Imperial College London) and Peter Vickerman (University of Bristol)

Epidemiological impact of ARV treatment and ARV resistance in India Karnataka state in South India:  Belgaum, Shimoga, Mysore districts Deterministic model of heterosexual transmission 
  • Mishra S, Mountain E, Pickles M, Vickerman P, Shastri S, Gilks C, Dhingra NK, Washington R, Becker ML, Blanchard JF, Alary M, Boily MC; Strategic Epi-ART in India Modelling Team. Exploring the population-level impact of antiretroviral treatment: the influence of baseline intervention context. AIDS. 2014;28 Suppl 1:S61-72.
Marie-Claude Boily - mc.boily(at)