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Name of Model Research group Area of research Population Type of model Reference Contact
HIV Synthesis Transmission Model for Sub-Saharan Africa

Andrew Phillips, Valentina Cambiano, Debbie Ford, Fumiyo Nakagawa, Loveleen Bansi (University College London), Alec Miners (LSHTM) and Paul Revill (University of York)

Impact of biomedical prevention interventions, impact of behavioural intervention approaches, impact of combination prevention approaches, Optimization of treatment and patient management (monitoring),Impact of introduction of new diagnostic technologies (e.g. new testing devices, resistance test, POC CD4 and VL), Resistance development and transmission South Africa - General population: aged 15 to 65 years old. Sub Saharan Africa - General population: aged 15 to 65 years old. Zimbabwe - General population: aged 15 to 65 years old. Lesotho - General population: aged 15 to 65 years old. Individual-based dynamic stochastic simulation model including transmission. Model of progression is similar to the other Synthesis models, except features such as drug availability and diagnostic testing.
  • Phillips AN, Pillay D, Garnett G, Bennett D, Vitoria M, Cambiano V, et al. Effect on transmission of HIV-1 resistance of timing of implementation of viral load monitoring to determine switches from first to second-line antiretroviral regimens in resource-limited settings. AIDS. 2011; 25(6):843-850. 
  • Cambiano V, Bertagnolio S, Jordan M, Pillay D, Perriens J, Venter F, et al. Predicted levels of HIV drug resistance: potential impact of expanding diagnosis, retention, and eligibility criteria for antiretroviral therapy initiation. AIDS. 2014, 28 (Suppl 1):S15–S23 
  • Cambiano V, Bertagnolio , Jordan M, et al. Transmission of Drug Resistant HIV and Its Potential Impact on Mortality and Treatment Outcomes in Resource-Limited Settings. J Infect Dis. 2013; 207: S57-62
Andrew Phillips ( Valentina Cambiano (
Menzies TB-HIV

Ted Cohen, Megan Murray, Joshua Salomon, Hsein-ho Lin, Leonid Chindelevitch, and Nick menzies (Harvard School of Public Health)

TB and HIV, and effects (epidemiology, disease burden, resource utilization) of control interventions directed at these diseases General population Deterministic state-transition model
  • Menzies NA, Cohen T, Lin H-H, Murray M, Salomon JA. Population Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Diagnosis with Xpert MTB/RIF: A Dynamic Simulation and Economic Evaluation. PLoS Med. 2012; 9(11): e1001347.
Nick Menzies - nickmenzies(at)

Jan Hontelez (Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; and Africa Centre for Health and Population Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa)

HIV elimination, epidemiological impact of antiretroviral therapy, population level impact of health systems and cascade of care, cost-effectiveness of different modes of treatment delivery General population; female sex workers and male clients Stochastic microsimulation model
  • Steen R, Hontelez JA, Veraart A, White RG, de Vlas SJ. Looking upstream to prevent HIV transmission: can interventions with sex workers alter the course of HIV epidemics in Africa as they did in Asia? AIDS. 2014; 28: 891-9.
  • Eaton JW, Menzies NA, Stover J, Cambiano V, Chindelevitch L, Cori A, Hontelez JA, (...) Hallett TB. Health benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of earlier eligibility for adult antiretroviral therapy and expanded treatment coverage: a combined analysis of 12 mathematical models. Lancet glob health. 2014;2(1) e23-e24