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Name of Model Research group Area of research Population Type of model Reference Contact

Leigh Johnson and Rob Dorrington (University of Cape Town)

Impact of prevention and treatment programmes, demographic impact of HIV, understanding epidemic drivers General population (includes sex workers, but not MSM or PWID) Deterministic, compartmental, cohort component projection models
  • Johnson LF, Dorrington RE. Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions. Demographic Research. 2006;14:541-574.
Leigh Johnson
Goals Model

John Stover, Carel Pretorius, Chaitra Gopalappa, Kyeen Anderson and Lori Bollinger (Futures Institute)

HIV epidemic dynamics, impacts of prevention interventions (both biomedical and behavior change, adults and children), impacts of new prevention technologies, resource allocation General population Deterministic, population-based
  • Schwartlander B, Stover J, Hallett T, Atun R, Avila C, Gouws E, et al. Towards and improved investment approach for an effective response to HV/AIDS. Lancet. 2011;377(9782): 2031-2041.